How you should bet on the Academy Awards

I kind of have a weird thing for the Academy Awards. Not the "What is Scarlett Johannsen wearing?" part of it, I just like to know what people generally consider are the best movies of the year. I try to make it a point to watch the five movies nominated for Best Picture every year, though it seems I only go 4 for 5 most of the time. Anyway, since sportsbook.com lets you wager on which of the nominees you think will win the major categories, I thought I would share my opinion. These are just my guesses though, don't come crying to me when all of these picks go horribly wrong.

Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire - 1 to 3
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 3 to 1
Milk - 5 to 1
Frost/Nixon - 10 to 1
The Reader - 12 to 1

I was under the impression that this was basically a toss up between Millionaire and Benjamin Button. Oddsmakers see it differently, they have Millionaire 9 times more likely to win than Benjamin Button. 9 TIMES!!! I just hate those odds for Millionaire. I liked it and all, but it felt like a less interesting version of City of God to me, which didn't even get a freaking nomination. Benjamin Button was merely a good movie, but, for lack of better words, it just felt like an Academy Award kind of movie. Put your money on Benjamin Button.

By the way, I have heard several suggestions on who the real life Benjamin Button is, the most common one being Greg Oden. I just wanted to throw a suggestion out there as well for someone aging in reverse, Ruby Dee. If you saw the mini-series The Stand ten years ago, she played someone well past the century mark in years, her face looked like a bowl of pudding that had been left out in the sun for three days. Obviously she didn't look YOUNG in American Gangster, but she looked younger. Like she could actually be Denzel Washington's mom, as opposed to The Stand, where she looked like she could be Booker T. Washington's mom. If she's playing Beyonce Knowles somewhat MILFy mom in the straight to DVD movie Glitter 2 five years from now, we will definitely know something is up.

Best Actor:
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) - 2 to 3
Sean Penn (Milk) - Even
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) - 7 to 1
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) - 10 to 1
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) - 12 to 1

All you need to know about Jenkins chance of winning is that sportsbook.com currently has him nominated for the wrong movie. It says Richard Jenkins (The Reader). How he is only 12 to 1 is beyond me, I wouldn't wager on him at 100 to 1. As for the actual contenders, I liked Rourke in The Wrestler, and he certainly seems to be the sentimental favorite. Penn is always good, he's come along way from Jeff Spicoli. (Seriously though, what are the odds that Spicoli would become one of the most respected actors in Hollywood? Can you imagine traveling 20 years into the future and Sean William Scott is being nominated for an Oscar every other year? I'm not even sure Stifler's Mom would believe that.) But the bet I love is Langella at 7 to 1. You could definitely see momentum for him building as the Oscars get closer. He may be my favorite bet on the board.

Best Actress:
Kate Winslet (The Reader) - 3 to 5
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) - 8 to 5
Meryl Streep (Doubt) - 7 to 2
Angelina Jolie (Changeling) - 10 to 1
Melissa Leo (Frozen River) -10 to 1

If you feel like taking one of the longshots go with Leo, she would have a reasonable shot if anyone had actually seen Frozen River. In reality, its a three way race between Winslet, Hathaway and Streep. I'm rooting hard for Winslet since she gets naked early and often in The Reader; I always hoped being a sex addict would be the actress equivalent of "going retard" to get an Academy Award. You hear me Keira Knightley? You go all the way with that lesbian scene in The Duchess, and not only do you have a nomination, but you also sell about a million more DVD's to awkward teenage boys. Its a win-win. ANYWAY, since this award seems pretty wide open, Streep getting 7 to 2 seems to be the way to go. Let's hope it doesn't happen though, no one wants to see a pious nun trend start up in Hollywood.

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) - 1 to 20
Josh Brolin (Milk) - 14 to 1
Phillip Seymour-Hoffman (Doubt) - 14 to 1
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) - 15 to 1
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder) - 25 to 1

I guess this is the best place for me to go on a rant about The Dark Knight. And the thing is this: Ten years from now, the one movie that 2008 will be remembered for is The Dark Knight. Whether it was the best movie of 2008 is debatable, whether it was the most significant movie of 2008 is undeniable. I figured it was a lock for the last nomination, the Academy usually goes with one oddball nomination like Juno or Sideways. Instead this year they nominated 5 dramas. Its like the BCS in college football, no matter how good a MWC team or an action movie is, it's not going to win the biggest prize. I'm not saying that The Dark Knight SHOULD win Best Picture or Utah SHOULD win the National Championship, but they should be given the chance.

As for the odds, Heath Ledger is the biggest favorite out of any category at 1 to 20. For those of you that don't know, that means if you bet 100 dollars on Ledger winning and you were right, you would win 5 dollars total. Not exactly a money maker. If you insist on betting on someone else, bet on the next 3 actors; Brolin, Hoffman and Shannon. If an upset happens (And it almost certainly won't) you are going to win a decent amount. Save your money betting on Downey Jr. though, how he finagled an Oscar nomination for portraying an Oscar winning actor is beyond me. Overall though, my reccomendation is to avoid this category

Best Supporting Actress:
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona) - 4 to 7
Viola Davis (Doubt) - 11 to 4
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) - 7 to 2
Taraji P Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) - 8 to 1
Amy Adams (Doubt) - 12 to 1

Since I have yet to see Doubt or Vicky Christina Barcelona, it would be unfair for me to evaluate this category. However, since this is my blog and no one cares, I'm going to do it anyway. Davis apparently was fantastic in Doubt, but didn't have much screen time. It will be a cold day in hell before Tomei wins a second academy award, though much like Winslet, she spent a good deal of The Wrestler without the benefit of clothes. So she is my sentimental favorite. But the only real bet here is Cruz. I think she's got a better chance than Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture, but you can get better odds on Cruz. But I would probably want to actually see the movie before I put my cold, unearned cash on her.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) - 1 to 6
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) - 4 to 1
Gus Van Sant (Milk) - 10 to 1
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) - 10 to 1
Stephen Daldry (The Reader) - 15 to 1

I don't like any of these bets really. Boyle is the second biggest favorite on the board after Ledger for Supporting Actor, but I'm not betting 600 dollars on him for a chance to win 100. I guess Fincher is the best play at 4 to 1, and if you can parlay that with Benjamin Button for Best Picture you could make some good money. Still though, I'm avoiding this one like the plague. Maybe if I could get 1000 to 1 on Christopher Nolan I would take that, it has to be a mistake that he didn't make the cut


Sorry folks, thats all the categories to bet on. Screenplays get no sportsbook love apparently. Just to be clear, these aren't my actual picks for the Oscars, just the odds that I like best. My top three overall would be Langella for Best Actor at 7 to 1, Streep for Best Actress at 7 to 2, and the Curious Case of Benjamin Button for Best Picture at 3 to 1. Mark it down now, one of those three will be correct.